In this paper, we present a data-driven approach to enable the creation of evidence-based usability test scenarios. By utilising product usage data to create usability test scenarios, we aim to improve the reliability of the test results and to provide better insights into product usability. The approach consists of four elements: the collection of product usage data, the transformation of these data into logs of user activities, the creation of models of user behaviour, and the guided creation of usability test scenarios based on the models. We discuss the challenges that can be encountered when applying this approach based on our experiences with two case studies in product development. We have created a prototype scenario planning tool and performed a preliminary evaluation of the tool with usability engineers working at Philips Healthcare. The evaluation shows that tool-supported evidence-based usability test creation would be valuable in their daily work.